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The Department of Geography presents Associate Professor, Dr. Melanee Thomas from the University of Calgary.
Natural Disasters and District Power: How Political Scientists Think About Electoral Effects of Place
How much of electoral politics happens in the district? Although the fundamental unit of Canada’s representative democracy is the electoral district, the most oft-cited explanations for Canadian electoral behaviour are either individual or national in focus. This obscures considerable variation at the meso level – that is, variation across federal electoral districts in competitiveness, party campaigns, voter turnout, and diversity both within the district itself and across the candidates that are nominated for election.
This presentation begins by using the City of Calgary as a case study. On 20 June 2013, the Bow and Elbow rivers flooded, devastating 26 neighborhoods and displacing approximately 75, 000 people. Four months later, a municipal election was held. When analyzed as a natural experiment, results suggest support for the incumbent mayor increased city wide, but at a lower rate in poll divisions that experienced residential flooding. However, flooded areas differ systematically from areas that were not flooded in ways key to the outcome of the election. When analysed more conservatively, results show that the flood had no effect on incumbent support or turnout. From here, I expand on this case study to highlight a new concept – district power – and how our team plans to use it to help explain election outcomes.
Cookies and coffee for purchase to support the Geography Club!
Everyone is welcome!
Contact:
Deb Bullock | bullockd@uleth.ca
